Track record
Every trade, logged in public
Each signal is a full trade: an entry at the next open and an exit by rule. Below is the live record, the backtest the rules were chosen on, and why we retired our first engine.
Live record
Closed trades since the current rules went live. Net of estimated costs. Every signal is timestamped in Bitcoin before its outcome; verify it yourself.
Closed trades
38
24 open now
Win rate
50%
Average trade
-1.0%
P&L at $100 per trade
-$37
| Signal | Fired | Exit | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY LTC-USD Pullback in uptrend | Nov 4, 2026 | Rule exit · 3d | +4.5% |
| BUY SOL-USD Pullback in uptrend | Oct 31, 2026 | Rule exit · 7d | -0.3% |
| BUY BTC-USD Pullback in uptrend | Nov 1, 2026 | Rule exit · 6d | +3.9% |
| BUY MSFT Pullback in uptrend | Oct 31, 2026 | Rule exit · 4d | +5.8% |
| SELL XRP-USD 20-day breakout | Oct 31, 2026 | Stopped · 6d | -8.1% |
| BUY DIA Pullback in uptrend | Oct 31, 2026 | Rule exit · 4d | +2.8% |
| BUY ETH-USD Pullback in uptrend | Oct 31, 2026 | Rule exit · 6d | +0.7% |
| BUY AAPL Pullback in uptrend | Nov 4, 2026 | Rule exit · 2d | +3.5% |
| SELL ETH-USD 20-day breakout | Oct 31, 2026 | Stopped · 6d | -7.9% |
| BUY SPY Pullback in uptrend | Oct 31, 2026 | Rule exit · 4d | +0.7% |
| BUY DOT-USD Pullback in uptrend | Oct 25, 2026 | Rule exit · 11d | -13.9% |
| SELL TRX-USD 20-day breakout | Nov 2, 2026 | Stopped · 3d | -6.2% |
| BUY AVAX-USD Pullback in uptrend | Oct 31, 2026 | Rule exit · 4d | +4.8% |
| BUY META Pullback in uptrend | Oct 20, 2026 | Rule exit · 11d | -12.2% |
| SELL LINK-USD 20-day breakout | Oct 31, 2026 | Stopped · 2d | -11.2% |
How the rules were chosen
57 stocks and ETFs and 16 cryptocurrencies, 2017–2026. Rules were picked on data up to 2022, then tested once on 2023–now, and on 54 tickers the research never used. Every rule is compared with random entries that use the same exits.
Pullback in uptrend
Buy a sharp dip (RSI(2) under 10) when price is above its 200-day average; sell on the first close above the 5-day average, or after 10 days.
- Signals per year
- 488
- Win rate
- 66%
- Average trade (net)
- +0.5%
- Better than random entry by
- +0.4%
- 2023–now average trade
- +0.5%
- 2023–now vs random
- +0.2% p 0.018
20-day breakout (crypto)
Trade a close beyond the 20-day range with a 2 ATR stop; exit on a close through the opposite 10-day range.
- Signals per year
- 146
- Win rate
- 36%
- Average trade (net)
- +8.4%
- Better than random entry by
- +6.2%
- 2023–now average trade
- +2.1%
- 2023–now vs random
- +2.0% p 0.035
Show data table
| Date | Vantum rules | Random entries, same exits |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-01 | -$14 | +$34 |
| 2017-02-01 | +$23 | +$39 |
| 2017-03-01 | -$27 | +$65 |
| 2017-04-01 | +$311 | +$93 |
| 2017-05-01 | +$374 | +$99 |
| 2017-06-01 | +$429 | +$116 |
| 2017-07-01 | +$461 | +$121 |
| 2017-08-01 | +$539 | +$155 |
| 2017-09-01 | +$545 | +$162 |
| 2017-10-01 | +$616 | +$182 |
| 2017-11-01 | +$854 | +$208 |
| 2017-12-01 | +$4,782 | +$275 |
| 2018-01-01 | +$4,712 | +$287 |
| 2018-02-01 | +$4,442 | +$305 |
| 2018-03-01 | +$4,657 | +$325 |
| 2018-04-01 | +$4,897 | +$388 |
| 2018-05-01 | +$4,971 | +$380 |
| 2018-06-01 | +$4,939 | +$395 |
| 2018-07-01 | +$4,889 | +$424 |
| 2018-08-01 | +$5,061 | +$424 |
| 2018-09-01 | +$4,957 | +$448 |
| 2018-10-01 | +$4,779 | +$462 |
| 2018-11-01 | +$5,139 | +$486 |
| 2018-12-01 | +$5,053 | +$517 |
| 2019-01-01 | +$5,050 | +$556 |
| 2019-02-01 | +$5,318 | +$605 |
| 2019-03-01 | +$5,589 | +$637 |
| 2019-04-01 | +$5,437 | +$658 |
| 2019-05-01 | +$5,505 | +$724 |
| 2019-06-01 | +$5,667 | +$767 |
| 2019-07-01 | +$5,724 | +$765 |
| 2019-08-01 | +$5,704 | +$769 |
| 2019-09-01 | +$5,571 | +$776 |
| 2019-10-01 | +$5,535 | +$804 |
| 2019-11-01 | +$5,632 | +$833 |
| 2019-12-01 | +$5,797 | +$843 |
| 2020-01-01 | +$6,180 | +$899 |
| 2020-02-01 | +$6,131 | +$916 |
| 2020-03-01 | +$6,045 | +$905 |
| 2020-04-01 | +$6,265 | +$991 |
| 2020-05-01 | +$6,270 | +$1,040 |
| 2020-06-01 | +$6,398 | +$1,064 |
| 2020-07-01 | +$6,665 | +$1,170 |
| 2020-08-01 | +$6,796 | +$1,186 |
| 2020-09-01 | +$6,798 | +$1,201 |
| 2020-10-01 | +$7,252 | +$1,257 |
| 2020-11-01 | +$7,374 | +$1,303 |
| 2020-12-01 | +$8,698 | +$1,363 |
| 2021-01-01 | +$10,816 | +$1,428 |
| 2021-02-01 | +$10,781 | +$1,469 |
| 2021-03-01 | +$11,105 | +$1,508 |
| 2021-04-01 | +$11,899 | +$1,579 |
| 2021-05-01 | +$11,940 | +$1,586 |
| 2021-06-01 | +$11,734 | +$1,580 |
| 2021-07-01 | +$12,182 | +$1,628 |
| 2021-08-01 | +$12,583 | +$1,667 |
| 2021-09-01 | +$12,558 | +$1,679 |
| 2021-10-01 | +$12,542 | +$1,767 |
| 2021-11-01 | +$12,735 | +$1,784 |
| 2021-12-01 | +$12,726 | +$1,797 |
| 2022-01-01 | +$12,535 | +$1,804 |
| 2022-02-01 | +$12,402 | +$1,814 |
| 2022-03-01 | +$12,368 | +$1,887 |
| 2022-04-01 | +$12,898 | +$1,877 |
| 2022-05-01 | +$12,964 | +$1,875 |
| 2022-06-01 | +$12,894 | +$1,872 |
| 2022-07-01 | +$12,780 | +$1,947 |
| 2022-08-01 | +$12,647 | +$1,970 |
| 2022-09-01 | +$12,547 | +$2,028 |
| 2022-10-01 | +$12,452 | +$2,090 |
| 2022-11-01 | +$12,244 | +$2,113 |
| 2022-12-01 | +$12,196 | +$2,127 |
| 2023-01-01 | +$12,556 | +$2,199 |
| 2023-02-01 | +$12,507 | +$2,242 |
| 2023-03-01 | +$12,384 | +$2,264 |
| 2023-04-01 | +$12,393 | +$2,321 |
| 2023-05-01 | +$12,459 | +$2,327 |
| 2023-06-01 | +$12,531 | +$2,385 |
| 2023-07-01 | +$12,578 | +$2,419 |
| 2023-08-01 | +$12,565 | +$2,408 |
| 2023-09-01 | +$12,574 | +$2,418 |
| 2023-10-01 | +$13,176 | +$2,518 |
| 2023-11-01 | +$13,205 | +$2,525 |
| 2023-12-01 | +$13,337 | +$2,574 |
| 2024-01-01 | +$13,278 | +$2,575 |
| 2024-02-01 | +$13,580 | +$2,663 |
| 2024-03-01 | +$13,590 | +$2,702 |
| 2024-04-01 | +$13,447 | +$2,707 |
| 2024-05-01 | +$13,423 | +$2,780 |
| 2024-06-01 | +$13,477 | +$2,780 |
| 2024-07-01 | +$13,386 | +$2,852 |
| 2024-08-01 | +$13,344 | +$2,875 |
| 2024-09-01 | +$13,411 | +$2,944 |
| 2024-10-01 | +$13,403 | +$3,003 |
| 2024-11-01 | +$14,473 | +$3,071 |
| 2024-12-01 | +$14,434 | +$3,085 |
| 2025-01-01 | +$14,484 | +$3,134 |
| 2025-02-01 | +$14,392 | +$3,135 |
| 2025-03-01 | +$14,291 | +$3,134 |
| 2025-04-01 | +$14,173 | +$3,184 |
| 2025-05-01 | +$14,136 | +$3,232 |
| 2025-06-01 | +$13,970 | +$3,223 |
| 2025-07-01 | +$14,166 | +$3,308 |
| 2025-08-01 | +$14,184 | +$3,403 |
| 2025-09-01 | +$14,128 | +$3,419 |
| 2025-10-01 | +$14,191 | +$3,439 |
| 2025-11-01 | +$14,251 | +$3,445 |
| 2025-12-01 | +$14,243 | +$3,455 |
| 2026-01-01 | +$14,400 | +$3,543 |
| 2026-02-01 | +$14,434 | +$3,553 |
| 2026-03-01 | +$14,331 | +$3,584 |
| 2026-04-01 | +$14,273 | +$3,637 |
| 2026-05-01 | +$14,396 | +$3,682 |
| 2026-06-01 | +$14,463 | +$3,682 |
| 2026-07-01 | +$14,526 | +$3,742 |
| 2026-08-01 | +$14,579 | +$3,818 |
| 2026-09-01 | +$14,524 | +$3,870 |
| 2026-10-01 | +$14,542 | +$3,869 |
Cumulative P&L at $100 per trade, after estimated costs (0.15% per side on crypto, 0.03% on stocks). Entries at the next daily open; when a bar touches the stop and another level, the stop counts first. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact of fees, slippage, liquidity or market factors. No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Why we retired our first engine
Our first version sent 20 classic indicator signals: RSI levels, MACD and moving-average crosses, candlestick patterns. When we tested it the same way on 9 years of data (31,485 trades), it lost 0.08% per trade after costs and did worse than random entries. So we replaced it with the two rules above, the only ones that held up out of sample.
Get the next trade when it fires
Pro sends each entry the moment the daily close confirms it, then tells you when to exit. Free accounts see signals a day later.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.